Germany’s preliminary official election count has confirmed that Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union failed to enter the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, converting an election-night danger into an unprecedented institutional defeat.
The CDU received 4.9% of the second vote, according to the preliminary result reported after counting was completed. German parties ordinarily require at least 5% to receive proportional representation.
The result makes Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania the first German state parliament from which the CDU has been excluded.
It is also the party’s worst performance in any state election since the Federal Republic of Germany was founded in 1949.
Earlier projections had placed the CDU close to the threshold, leaving open the possibility that late-counted votes could preserve its representation. The completed preliminary count has removed that uncertainty, although the legally certified final result will be declared later.
The far-right Alternative for Germany won the election with 38.2%, more than doubling its 16.7% result from 2021.
The Social Democratic Party of state premier Manuela Schwesig finished second with 35.5%, down from 39.6% but substantially stronger than several pre-election polls had suggested.
Die Linke received 6.5%, while the Greens retained representation with 5.7%.
The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance narrowly missed the threshold on 4.8%. The Free Democratic Party, which had entered the legislature in 2021, fell to approximately 1%.
Although the AfD is now the largest party, its victory does not automatically give it control of the state government.
The SPD, Left Party and Greens together appear to have the only viable parliamentary majority that excludes the AfD. Schwesig said she would offer talks to the democratic parties, while the AfD argued that finishing first gave it a mandate to attempt to form a government.
Germany’s other principal parties continue to reject coalitions with the AfD under the political “firewall” designed to prevent the far right from entering government.
If that position holds, Schwesig could remain premier through a three-party SPD–Left–Green coalition despite finishing behind the AfD.
The result nevertheless gives the AfD its second first-place finish in a German state election during September, following its victory in Saxony-Anhalt.
It also demonstrates the party’s growing dominance in parts of eastern Germany, where opposition to migration policy, economic dissatisfaction, energy costs and criticism of German support for Ukraine have strengthened anti-establishment politics.
The CDU’s collapse carries the greatest immediate consequence for Merz.
The chancellor described the result as a disaster and said he would remain in office and continue pursuing reforms involving taxation, pensions, healthcare and economic deregulation.
His refusal to change direction is likely to intensify debate inside the CDU over whether the government’s programme and political communication can recover voters lost to the AfD.
The defeat came alongside another major setback in Berlin.
The Left Party won the capital’s election with approximately 25.3%, ahead of the CDU on about 19%. The AfD recorded its strongest Berlin result at approximately 16%, while the SPD fell to about 12.1%.
Left Party lead candidate Elif Eralp campaigned heavily on Berlin’s housing crisis and promised to pursue legislation transferring major private housing portfolios into public ownership.
The proposed measure could cover approximately 220,000 homes. Berlin voters supported the principle in a 2021 referendum, but implementation has been delayed by legal, financial and political disputes.
The SPD and Greens have signalled openness to talks with the Left Party, although the Greens have demanded a clearer response to allegations of antisemitism involving parts of the Berlin Left.
A successful coalition could make Eralp the first mayor of Berlin from the Left Party. The outcome remains subject to negotiations and a formal parliamentary election of the city’s governing mayor.
The two state elections therefore delivered different winners but a common verdict against Merz’s conservatives.
In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the CDU has been removed from the legislature. In Berlin, it has been removed from first place and is expected to lose the mayor’s office.
Neither result directly removes Merz as federal chancellor or changes the composition of the Bundestag.
Their national importance lies in the evidence they provide about the erosion of Germany’s traditional centre, the continuing rise of the AfD and the growing difficulty of forming governments while maintaining the firewall against it.
The strongest verified update is that the preliminary official Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania result confirms the CDU below the threshold and outside the state parliament for the first time.
The final certified vote totals, formal seat confirmation and subsequent coalition agreements remain outstanding.
